Strong Opinions @marksbirch

The only certainties in life are death, taxes and traffic jams at midnight in NYC.  Over the decades, many solutions to the problems of traffic have been attempted.  City planners have built complex highways systems across the urban landscape.  Traffic engineers have toyed with HOV lanes and real-time flow monitoring.  Politicians have plowed billions into mass transit.  The result is that average commutes aren’t going down, they are going up.

As expected, the technology industry has gotten involved with burgeoning interest in traffic apps.  I have seen bike parking solutions, social networking car parking, and traffic alerting mobile apps.  There are a lot of resources being diverted to solving the traffic problem, and it is a big problem, costing the US over $67.5 billion in lost productivity.

In New York City, the problem is especially acute.  Recent high profile proposals included building a high speed transit tunnel between NJ and NY and adding tolls between Manhattan and the other NYC boroughs.  Despite these grand ideas however, nothing has fundamentally changed in NYC for decades.

There is some room for hope though.  The current administration has made huge strides in creating dedicated bike lanes throughout Manhattan and the boroughs.  The government’s support for bicycling has been encouraging.  Ideas on extend the NYC subway to NJ have garnered support.  Previously stalled projects such as the 2^nd Avenue subway and 7 train extension to the Javitis Center are finally making progress.

But even that is not enough to deal with the crippling congestion in NYC.  We need to think bigger.  We need to ban all cars in Manhattan.

With cars, we not only have the problem of congestion, we have to store them, insure them and support infrastructure for them.  They are also a major source of pollution, exasperated during rush hour and other periods of congestion like the holidays and major events.

Without cars in Manhattan, what would life look like?  As a thought experiment, let’s think of some of the possibilities:

• Conversion of parking lots and garages to productive uses.  Manhattan alone has 2000 acres dedicated to parking lots and that does not even include space that is incorporated into other categories such as multi-use or commercial.  In the place of these lots we could convert the space into affordable residential units, schools and parks.
• Less government infrastructure.  No need for lots of tow trucks and traffic officers and parking ticket bureaucracy.  While the city brings in over $500 million per year from parking fines, the waste and inefficiency is an overall net cost to society in lost productivity, clogged courts and diverting human resources to less valuable activities to the economy.
• Less crime, less accidents and less stress.  The only vehicles in Manhattan would be emergency vehicles, delivery trucks, taxis and mass transit buses.  While some accidents are inevitable, the net effect is fewer accidents overall.  NYC has over 60,000 reportable traffic incidents per year and cost NYC over $4.29 billion per year.
• Open streets.  Streets can be utilized for wider bike lanes, outdoor pavilions, dedicated emergency vehicle lanes and other outdoor activities.  Some streets can even be fully converted into pedestrian malls, such as parts of Broadway which have already undergone the conversion.  As there are no parked cars along the sides of the streets, you also have no double parking, allowing for the free flow of allowed vehicles.
• Environmental improvements.  With less vehicles and less congestion, there would be a significantly reduction in pollution generated and improved air quality.  Traffic congestion itself contributes 50% of all air pollutants in NYC.  This translates into a healthier population and decreased health costs due to asthma, heart and lung disease.

Of course, there will be negative effects with any sweeping change.  Some of the issues with the plan include:

• Loss of revenues.  Without personal vehicular traffic going in and out of Manhattan, toll and street parking revenue will decrease.  However, much of this can be adjusted by increasing tolls to delivery vehicles, buses and taxis.  Another solution is the building of public parking structures outside NYC operated by the Port Authority.  These parking structures would be next to major transit hubs and the cost of parking would be an add-on to the purchase of bus and train tickets.
• Significant inconvenience for NYC-based car owners.  Car owners in Manhattan would face the greatest shock as they would need to store their vehicles in lots outside the city or sell them.  For some who own businesses or are employed by businesses that rely on the use of a car, compensation would need to be considered for these impacted individuals.  There is also the large contingent of people that use private cars to go between Manhattan for various purposes that would be impacted, particularly when it comes to transporting large items or a group of people.
• Decrease in overall economic activity.  The most obvious impact to the economy would be to auto-related businesses such as parking lots, service shops and gas stations.  The loss of these businesses would result in a slight decrease in the NYC corporate tax base.  The bigger question becomes whether the car ban would greatly affect NYC?  Tourists would still come, but the dollars spent in NYC from people in the Tri-state area would certainly decrease in the short term.
• Routing of cross Manhattan traffic.  For vehicles that move between NJ and Long Island/Queens/Brooklyn, there would need to be highways built to allow for the passage of such traffic.  While the George Washington – Cross Bronx – Triboro Bridge combo covers northern sections, avenues would need to be created for the central and southern sections of Manhattan (Lincoln Tunnel – Queens Mid-Town Tunnel and the Holland Tunnel – Brooklyn Bridges).  This would be an added cost for the construction of such infrastructure.
• Fair access to alternative transit options. In the place of private cars, mass transit options would need to be expanded in those areas of Manhattan that are poorly covered such as upper Manhattan, Lower East Side, and Battery Park City.  The least costly option would be the expansion of smaller natural gas or electric bus fleets to cover these areas.
• The fairness issue.  Besides taking away a transit option the rest of the country shares, there would be the issue of abuse.  While business and government use of vehicles would be allowed in NYC for deliveries, such permits could lead to abuse.  This would require active policing to ensure that there is compliance with the law and vehicles are being used for intended business purposes.

I believe that the negatives are small compared to the overall good of banning cars in Manhattan.  Taking small steps has done little to alleviate the traffic congestion and air quality is still poor.  The real question then becomes are we ready and have the political will as a city to give up on cars for good?